Belarus and European Provincialism

Recent events in Belarus have shown yet again the enduring appeal of a free and open society, that has the well-being of its citizens as its fundamental aim. Belarusians have massively taken to the streets to protest against an authoritarian culture of fear and corruption. Let there be no misunderstanding, it is in essence a modern slave rebellion against a neo-czarist state. That takes a considerable amount of courage, but it also risks pushing Mr Lukashenko into the arms of Russia. Mr Putin, a fellow neo-czarist, is only too willing to respond. Aware that Russia is too small and weak to play an enduring role as a world power, he intends to gain back as much as possible of the former Russian Empire. Sandwiched between the European Union and China, a weak Russia, could indeed turn into a geopolitical liability. After Crimea, Belarus presents an enticing opportunity. Putin also eyes the rest of Ukraine and the Baltic states, each of which contain sizeable Russian minorities. He has also made his imperial ambitions clear in Syria and has unleashed a vast corruption and disinformation campaign against the West. Success in Belarus, could make Mr Putin seem unstoppable.

Mindful of history, Central European and Baltic states have been quick to respond. They have imposed sanctions on the Lukashenko regime and warned against any Russian interference. As former Soviet satellites, they should know what they are doing. Sadly, Western European nations have been slow to respond. As Mrs Merkel’s response to the refugee problem in 2015 has shown, Germany is curiously unaware or uninterested in Central European sensibilities. France and Germany are perhaps reminded of the failures of a toothless diplomacy in Ukraine. Although Mrs Merkel has subsequently imposed sanctions on Russia, important economic ties with Russia have so far seen them steer clear of any real confrontation in what they consider to be Russia’s backyard. Too many Western politicians and businessmen have important financial interests at play.

National European governments by and large like to view the European Union as a mainly economic enterprise. As the talks on Brexit show, the European Union is strong when it speaks with one voice. In matters of foreign affairs and defence, however, unity has been sorely lacking. It is generally pointed out that the EU is a giant in economic and trade matters, but a dwarf when it comes to foreign affairs and defence. Our mentality has been shaped by the Pax Americana, in which we could always rely on the United States to preserve our peace and security. With US attention diverted to Asia, we must realise that has now changed. Clearly, Mr Trump is no friend of the EU. We still have NATO, but I hear doubts about invoking article 5 (an attack on one is any attack on us all) when it really matters. During recent talks with China, politicians expressed the wish that Europe be more united when dealing with this country. That is indeed imperative. China has adopted a far more aggressive stance in recent years. It has actively sought to divide the member states and create extraterritorial enclaves within the EU. In Greece, it has succeeded. Europe has to learn to take care of itself on a global scale.

If the European Union is to endure, it is important to realise that we have to stand up and protect what we hold in common in the face of the world. Economics and power politics are intimately related and the world is fast growing smaller. In the past half century or so Europeans have built a common market, a customs union and (in part) adopted a shared currency. We are, in fact, one economy. Gradually, the competences of the European Union have been extended to other areas as well. European citizens are taking freedom of movement for granted and enjoy the benefits of local voting rights, health coverage and educational programmes. The European Union is a project that is based on fostering the well-being of its citizens. We are a beacon of freedom and affluence for the rest of the world. Jealous of their sovereignty, however, the member states have so far sought to stress the inter-governmental nature of foreign affairs and defence. Calls for rolling back economic integration have started to sound more loudly as well. Each state has preferred to pursue its own goals within a mental framework that is largely based on a nineteenth century state of affairs. Most voters, busy as they are with their daily lives, don’t really care. Most will take our peace and security for granted. This is a dangerous road to go down.

It is time the European member states transcend their provincialism. We are each of us too small to matter in an increasingly global and contested world. If we want to speak with one voice to China, a common stance towards events in Belarus would be a good start. Central European and Baltic states need to feel safe as a part of the European Union. It would bring home to them that they are a part of a larger whole that has their interests at heart. The larger states, Germany and France, should listen to the fears and warnings of countries that have suffered centuries of oppression and slavery and show leadership. Other states will listen and participate. Imposing EU-wide sanctions on the Lukashenko regime could be a good first step. Mr Putin should be told in no uncertain terms that he should stay out. Germany should tell him publicly that the Nord-2 pipeline could be cancelled if he does not. It would incidentally be a good indication that we take climate change seriously. But that is not enough. As our support for Ireland in the Brexit talks has shown, the EU stands to gain from intensifying cooperation on foreign affairs. There should be a common plan that takes the wishes of Central Europe and the Baltic states seriously. There should be support for the democratic aspirations of Belarusians. Russian involvement should be discouraged by threatening with measures that more seriously hurt the Putin regime. It could additionally be used as a first step towards reducing a dangerous influence of the Russian state in our politics and business life. It could even support democracy there too.

The crisis in Belarus presents the member states of the European Union with an opportunity. Mr Lukashenko’s surprise inauguration today could be used as a good reason for a united and powerful response. Importantly, by discarding their provincialism and speaking with one voice on Belarus, European member states will show both Central and Baltic Europeans and Belarusians what the EU can do for them. The rest of the world will surely take note. Putin may be deterred from his more dangerous designs. EU member states could build on this to speak with one voice in other matters as well. Ultimately, it will give our economic ties and trade relations with the rest of the world so much more punch. It could serve to invigorate our alliance with the US and strengthen NATO. If we are to counter Putin’s aggression and China’s divisive policies towards Europe, we will have to show that we are at one in other matters as well. It will give our leaders the authority and leverage to one day ask all member states to talk as one not just to China, but to the rest of the world. It will make the world a better and more secure place for all Europeans.

Let’s bury European provincialism now. It is an opportunity that should not be missed.